National Default Rates Decreased in January 2012 According to S&P/Experian Credit Default Indices
Miami and New York Default Rates Increased in January, All other MSAs Decreased
PR Newswire
NEW YORK

 

 

NEW YORK, Feb. 21, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Data through January 2012, released today by S&P Indices and Experian for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices, a comprehensive measure of changes in consumer credit defaults, showed that most loan types saw a decrease in default rates during the month. After four consecutive months of increasing default rates, the national composite declined to 2.16% in January 2012 from the 2.24% December rate, mostly driven by a decrease in the first mortgage default rates from 2.19% in December to 2.08% in January. Second mortgage and bank card default rates also moved down from 1.33% and 4.60% in December to 1.30% and 4.57% in January, respectively. Auto loans default rates were unchanged at 1.27%.

"As we begin the New Year consumer default rates may be resuming the two-year downward trend that was interrupted in the middle of last year," says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee for S&P Indices. "Last month we reported that the second half of 2011 saw a modest increase in consumer defaults led by four consecutive monthly increases in first mortgage default. While one month of data is not a new trend, January's report shows broad based declines in default rates, which is a bit of a relief.

"First mortgage default rates fell by 11 basis points in January, completely reversing the increase seen in November and December.  First mortgage loans and, consequently, their default rates are the largest among consumer loan types, so these default rates drive the composite.  Second mortgage and bank card default rates also fell in January, but not by as much.  The good news is that if you look across all loan types, their default rates are all pretty close to the three-year lows they reached in 2011, and all of them are at least cut in half from their relative maximum rates, most of which occurred in 2009. 

"Looking at the five cities we cover, three of them had lower default rates.  Los Angeles had the largest decline, moving from 2.54% in December to 2.36% in January. Chicago fell from 2.84% to 2.76%.  And Dallas, which retains the lowest rate among the five cities we follow, fell to 1.53% from 1.56%. Miami default rates have risen for three consecutive months, and has the highest default rate of 4.80%."

The table below summarizes the January 2012 results for the S&P/Experian Credit Default Indices. These data are not seasonally adjusted and are not subject to revision.

S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices
National Indices

Index

January 2012
Index Level

December 2011
Index Level 

January 2011
Index Level

Composite

2.16

2.24

2.90

First Mortgage

2.08

2.19

2.85

Second Mortgage

1.30

1.33

1.51

Bank Card

4.57

4.60

6.13

Auto Loans

1.27

1.27

1.58

 

Source: S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices

Data through January 2012    

The table below provides the S&P/Experian Consumer Default Composite Indices for the five MSAs:                      

 

 

 

Metropolitan
Statistical Area

January 2012
Index Level

December 2011
Index Level

January 2011
Index Level

New York

2.23

2.13

2.65

Chicago

2.76

2.84

2.75

Dallas

1.53

1.56

2.07

Los Angeles

2.36

2.54

2.76

Miami

4.80

4.73

6.46

 

Source: S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices
Data through January 2012

 

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For more information:
Dave Guarino
Communications
S&P Indices
dave_guarino@standardandpoors.com
212-438-1471

David Blitzer
Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee
S&P Indices
david_blitzer@standardandpoors.com
212-438-3908

Susan Henson
Experian Public Relations
susan.henson@experian.com
714-830-5129

Jointly developed by S&P Indices and Experian, the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices are published on the third Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the default experience of consumer balances in four key loan categories: auto, bankcard, first mortgage lien and second mortgage lien. The Indices are calculated based on data extracted from Experian's consumer credit database. This database is populated with individual consumer loan and payment data submitted by lenders to Experian every month. Experian's base of data contributors includes leading banks and mortgage companies, and covers approximately $11 trillion in outstanding loans sourced from 11,500 lenders.

 

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