Platts China Steel Sentiment Index Stabilizes in September
Domestic orders to stay flat but exports tipped to deteriorate
PR Newswire
BEIJING

BEIJING, Sept. 7, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Chinese steel market participants expect new steel orders during September to stay at similar levels to last month, though prices could soften slightly, according to the latest Platts China Steel Sentiment Index (Platts CSSI), which showed a headline reading of 55.64 out of a possible 100 points in September.

The September index rose just 0.45 points from August's 55.19, and was the second consecutive month the CSSI has stayed above the 50 threshold. A figure greater than 50 indicates expectations of an increase. The outlook for new domestic steel orders increased by 1.35 points to 58.33, while export order expectations for the month deteriorated by 10.09 points to 24.48.

Crude steel production was expected to stay relatively flat in September, compared with August, while steel inventories held by traders were expected to rise further in response to weak demand.

Prices of flat steel products, such as hot rolled coil, were expected to weaken slightly in September, the CSSI showed. Sentiment is currently more positive regarding domestic demand, while expectations for export orders fell 10.09 points in September to 24.48.

"Generally, market sentiment remains extremely pessimistic with domestic steel prices at record lows, while demand from the manufacturing and property construction sectors has yet to improve," said Paul Bartholomew, Platts managing editor of steel and steel raw materials. "Exports have provided a vital outlet for Chinese steel but there is now so much competition for overseas markets that it is pulling export prices down and eroding confidence."

Platts China Steel Sentiment Index - September 2015
(a figure over 50 indicates expectations of an increase; under 50 indicates a decrease)

                            September 2015        Change from August
                                                  (points)
                            --------------       -------------------

    CSSI (Total New Orders)                55.64                       0.45
    ----------------------                 -----                       ----

    New Domestic Orders                    58.33                       1.35
    -------------------                    -----                       ----

    New Export Orders                      24.48                     -10.09
    -----------------                      -----                     ------

    Steel Production                       37.14                       2.14
    ----------------                       -----                       ----

    Steel Prices (flat
     products)                             41.43                      -3.57
    ------------------                     -----                      -----

    Stocks held by traders                 61.34                      13.64
    ----------------------                 -----                      -----

CSSI reflects expectations of market participants for the month ahead. A CSSI reading above 50 indicates an increase/expansion and a reading below 50 indicates a decrease/contraction. It is based on a survey of approximately 50 to 75 China-based market participants including traders, stockists and steel mill operators.

"Normally, you would expect a positive rebound for steel demand as the weather cools and construction activity picks up, particularly after the work stoppages around Beijing for the Victory Day parade and World Athletics Championship," Bartholomew said. "However, survey respondents did not envisage any significant improvement in the coming month."

Separate to the CSSI, the average monthly price in August for China export hot rolled coil was $306.21 per metric ton (mt) free on board (FOB) China. This was down 2.7% from $314.98/mt in July.

The Platts China Steel Sentiment Index survey plays no role in Platts' formal price assessment processes. For more information, visit: http://www.platts.com/IM.Platts.Content/MethodologyReferences/MethodologySpecs/steel.pdf.

CONTACT
Global, Americas: Kathleen Tanzy, + 1 917 331 4607, kathleen.tanzy@platts.com

About Platts: Founded in 1909, Platts is a leading global provider of energy, petrochemicals, metals and agriculture information and a premier source of benchmark prices for the physical and futures markets. Platts' news, pricing, analytics, commentary and conferences help customers make better-informed trading and business decisions and help the markets operate with greater transparency and efficiency. Customers in more than 150 countries benefit from Platts' coverage of the biofuels, carbon emissions, coal, electricity, oil, natural gas, metals, nuclear power, petrochemical, shipping and sugar markets. A division of McGraw Hill Financial, Platts is based in London with more than 1000 employees in more than 15 offices worldwide. Additional information is available at http://www.platts.com.

About McGraw Hill Financial: McGraw Hill Financial (NYSE: MHFI) is a leading financial intelligence company providing the global capital and commodity markets with independent benchmarks, credit ratings, portfolio and enterprise risk solutions, and analytics. The Company's iconic brands include: Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, S&P Capital IQ, S&P Dow Jones Indices, Platts, CRISIL and J.D. Power. The Company has approximately 17,000 employees in 30 countries. Additional information is available at www.mhfi.com.

 

Appendix

                        CSSI - 2015



                        Jan-15            Feb-15       Mar-15       Apr-15      May-15     Jun-15    Jul-15   Aug-15  Sep-15

    CSSI                            23.06         8.83        72.27        74.71       68.20      42.20     26.57    55.19   55.64

    Steel production                53.33        26.67        51.47        55.36       52.08      44.44     50.00    35.00   37.14

    New domestic orders             22.65         7.59        75.12        76.72       70.29      43.27     26.42    56.97   58.33

    New export orders               27.01        23.18        39.35        51.50       43.98      29.93     28.36    34.57   24.48

    Trader inventories              51.97        86.44        76.15        17.46       38.59      38.69     42.43    47.70   61.34

    Flats prices                    19.71        41.07        52.78        60.99       78.33      53.18     21.88    45.00   41.43

    Export prices                   10.19        22.73        28.84        39.11       40.33      31.89     17.35    38.44   15.67

SOURCE Platts

 

SOURCE: Platts

 

Platts China Steel Sentiment Index Stabilizes in September

Domestic orders to stay flat but exports tipped to deteriorate

PR Newswire

BEIJING, Sept. 7, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Chinese steel market participants expect new steel orders during September to stay at similar levels to last month, though prices could soften slightly, according to the latest Platts China Steel Sentiment Index (Platts CSSI), which showed a headline reading of 55.64 out of a possible 100 points in September.

The September index rose just 0.45 points from August's 55.19, and was the second consecutive month the CSSI has stayed above the 50 threshold. A figure greater than 50 indicates expectations of an increase. The outlook for new domestic steel orders increased by 1.35 points to 58.33, while export order expectations for the month deteriorated by 10.09 points to 24.48.

Crude steel production was expected to stay relatively flat in September, compared with August, while steel inventories held by traders were expected to rise further in response to weak demand.

Prices of flat steel products, such as hot rolled coil, were expected to weaken slightly in September, the CSSI showed. Sentiment is currently more positive regarding domestic demand, while expectations for export orders fell 10.09 points in September to 24.48.

"Generally, market sentiment remains extremely pessimistic with domestic steel prices at record lows, while demand from the manufacturing and property construction sectors has yet to improve," said Paul Bartholomew, Platts managing editor of steel and steel raw materials. "Exports have provided a vital outlet for Chinese steel but there is now so much competition for overseas markets that it is pulling export prices down and eroding confidence."  

Platts China Steel Sentiment Index – September 2015
(a figure over 50 indicates expectations of an increase; under 50 indicates a decrease)

 

September 2015

Change from August (points)

CSSI (Total New Orders)

55.64

0.45

New Domestic Orders

58.33

1.35

New Export Orders

24.48

-10.09

Steel Production

37.14

2.14

Steel Prices (flat products)

41.43

-3.57

Stocks held by traders

61.34

13.64

CSSI reflects expectations of market participants for the month ahead. A CSSI reading above 50 indicates an increase/expansion and a reading below 50 indicates a decrease/contraction. It is based on a survey of approximately 50 to 75 China-based market participants including traders, stockists and steel mill operators.

"Normally, you would expect a positive rebound for steel demand as the weather cools and construction activity picks up, particularly after the work stoppages around Beijing for the Victory Day parade and World Athletics Championship," Bartholomew said. "However, survey respondents did not envisage any significant improvement in the coming month."

Separate to the CSSI, the average monthly price in August for China export hot rolled coil was $306.21 per metric ton (mt) free on board (FOB) China. This was down 2.7% from $314.98/mt in July.

The Platts China Steel Sentiment Index survey plays no role in Platts' formal price assessment processes. For more information, visit: http://www.platts.com/IM.Platts.Content/MethodologyReferences/MethodologySpecs/steel.pdf.

CONTACT
Global, Americas: Kathleen Tanzy, + 1 917 331 4607, kathleen.tanzy@platts.com

About Platts: Founded in 1909, Platts is a leading global provider of energy, petrochemicals, metals and agriculture information and a premier source of benchmark prices for the physical and futures markets.  Platts' news, pricing, analytics, commentary and conferences help customers make better-informed trading and business decisions and help the markets operate with greater transparency and efficiency.  Customers in more than 150 countries benefit from Platts' coverage of the biofuels, carbon emissions, coal, electricity, oil, natural gas, metals, nuclear power, petrochemical, shipping and sugar markets.  A division of McGraw Hill Financial, Platts is based in London with more than 1000 employees in more than 15 offices worldwide. Additional information is available at http://www.platts.com.

About McGraw Hill Financial: McGraw Hill Financial  (NYSE: MHFI) is a leading financial intelligence company providing the global capital and commodity markets with independent benchmarks, credit ratings, portfolio and enterprise risk solutions, and analytics. The Company's iconic brands include: Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, S&P Capital IQ, S&P Dow Jones Indices, Platts, CRISIL and J.D. Power. The Company has approximately 17,000 employees in 30 countries. Additional information is available at www.mhfi.com.

 

Appendix

 

CSSI – 2015

 

             
 

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

CSSI

23.06

8.83

72.27

74.71

68.20

42.20

26.57

55.19

55.64

Steel production

53.33

26.67

51.47

55.36

52.08

44.44

50.00

35.00

37.14

New domestic orders

22.65

7.59

75.12

76.72

70.29

43.27

26.42

56.97

58.33

New export orders

27.01

23.18

39.35

51.50

43.98

29.93

28.36

34.57

24.48

Trader inventories

51.97

86.44

76.15

17.46

38.59

38.69

42.43

47.70

61.34

Flats prices

19.71

41.07

52.78

60.99

78.33

53.18

21.88

45.00

41.43

Export prices

10.19

22.73

28.84

39.11

40.33

31.89

17.35

38.44

15.67

                   

SOURCE Platts

CONTACT: Global, EMEA: Alex Brog, +44 207 176 7645, alex.brog@platts.com; Global, Americas: Kathleen Tanzy, + 1 917 331 4607, kathleen.tanzy@platts.com