The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index Annual Return Sets 31-Month High

NEW YORK, March 28, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for January 2017 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices' housing blog: www.housingviews.com.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.9% annual gain in January, up from 5.7% last month and setting a 31-month high. The 10-City Composite posted a 5.1% annual increase, up from 4.8% the previous month. The 20-City Composite reported a year-over-year gain of 5.7%, up from 5.5% in December.

Seattle, Portland, and Denver reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities over each of the last 12 months. In January, Seattle led the way with an 11.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by Portland with 9.7%, and Denver with a 9.2% increase. Twelve cities reported greater price increases in the year ending January 2017 versus the year ending December 2016.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.2% in January. The 10-City Composite posted a 0.3% increase and the 20-City Composite reported a 0.2% increase in January. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.6% month-over-month increase, while both the 10-City and 20-City Composites each reported a 0.9% month-over-month increase. Thirteen of 20 cities reported increases in January before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment, 19 cities saw prices rise.

ANALYSIS

"Housing and home prices continue on a generally positive upward trend," says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "The recent action by the Federal Reserve raising the target for the Fed funds rate by a quarter percentage point is expected to add less than a quarter percentage point to mortgage rates in the near future. Given the market's current strength and the economy, the small increase in interest rates isn't expected to dampen home buying. If we see three or four additional increases this year, rising mortgage rates could become concern.

"While prices vary month-to-month and across the country, the national price trend has been positive since the first quarter of 2012. In February, the inventory of homes in the market represented 3.7 months of sales, lower than the long-term average of six months. Tight supplies and rising prices may be deterring some people from trading up to a larger house, further aggravating supplies because fewer people are selling their homes. The prices also hurt affordability as higher prices and mortgage rates shrink the number of households that can afford to buy at current price levels. At some point, this process will force prices to level off and decline – however we don't appear to be there yet."

SUPPORTING DATA

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.


2006 Peak

2012 Trough

Current

Index

Level

Date

Level

Date

From
Peak(%)

Level

From
Trough (%)

From
Peak (%)

National

184.62

Jul-06

134.01

Feb-12

-27.4%

185.51

38.4%

0.5%

20-City

206.52

Jul-06

134.07

Mar-12

-35.1%

192.81

43.8%

-6.6%

10-City

226.29

Jun-06

146.45

Mar-12

-35.3%

206.73

41.2%

-8.6%

 

Table 2 below summarizes the results for January 2017. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.


January 2017

January '17/December '16

December/November

1-Year

Metropolitan Area

Level

Change (%)

Change (%)

Change (%)

Atlanta

133.09

-0.2%

0.1%

5.9%

Boston

194.93

0.4%

0.5%

7.0%

Charlotte

143.40

0.4%

0.1%

6.0%

Chicago

136.47

0.2%

0.4%

5.8%

Cleveland

113.02

-0.5%

0.4%

3.9%

Dallas

169.48

0.3%

0.2%

8.2%

Denver

190.75

0.5%

0.1%

9.2%

Detroit

109.54

-0.4%

0.0%

6.2%

Las Vegas

154.72

0.6%

0.3%

6.2%

Los Angeles

254.08

0.4%

0.3%

5.3%

Miami

220.61

0.3%

0.4%

6.7%

Minneapolis

154.02

-0.6%

-0.2%

5.4%

New York

185.16

0.3%

0.3%

3.2%

Phoenix

164.72

0.0%

0.2%

5.1%

Portland

209.41

0.1%

0.3%

9.7%

San Diego

231.21

0.8%

0.2%

5.7%

San Francisco

230.17

-0.4%

0.4%

6.3%

Seattle

207.52

0.6%

0.6%

11.3%

Tampa

191.23

0.0%

1.1%

8.1%

Washington

217.12

0.3%

0.3%

3.9%

Composite-10

206.73

0.3%

0.3%

5.1%

Composite-20

192.81

0.2%

0.3%

5.7%

U.S. National

185.51

0.2%

0.2%

5.9%

Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic



Data through January 2017

 

Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

 


January '17/December '16 Change (%)

December/November Change (%)

Metropolitan Area

NSA

SA

NSA

SA

Atlanta

-0.2%

0.6%

0.1%

0.8%

Boston

0.4%

0.9%

0.5%

1.2%

Charlotte

0.4%

0.6%

0.1%

0.5%

Chicago

0.2%

1.3%

0.4%

1.5%

Cleveland

-0.5%

-0.1%

0.4%

1.2%

Dallas

0.3%

0.8%

0.2%

0.8%

Denver

0.5%

1.1%

0.1%

0.8%

Detroit

-0.4%

0.7%

0.0%

0.8%

Las Vegas

0.6%

0.8%

0.3%

0.7%

Los Angeles

0.4%

0.9%

0.3%

0.7%

Miami

0.3%

0.4%

0.4%

0.7%

Minneapolis

-0.6%

0.5%

-0.2%

0.7%

New York

0.3%

0.7%

0.3%

0.9%

Phoenix

0.0%

0.5%

0.2%

0.5%

Portland

0.1%

1.0%

0.3%

1.0%

San Diego

0.8%

1.0%

0.2%

0.9%

San Francisco

-0.4%

0.7%

0.4%

1.2%

Seattle

0.6%

1.7%

0.6%

1.4%

Tampa

0.0%

0.7%

1.1%

1.4%

Washington

0.3%

1.0%

0.3%

0.8%

Composite-10

0.3%

0.9%

0.3%

0.9%

Composite-20

0.2%

0.9%

0.3%

0.9%

U.S. National

0.2%

0.6%

0.2%

0.7%

Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic



Data through January 2017




 

For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spdji.com

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FOR MORE INFORMATION:

David Blitzer
Managing Director and Chairman of Index Committee
New York, USA
(+1) 212 438 3907
[email protected]

Luke Shane
North America Communications
New York, USA
(+1) 212 438 8184
[email protected]

S&P Dow Jones Indices' interactive blog, HousingViews.com, delivers real-time commentary and analysis from industry experts across S&P Global on a wide-range of topics impacting residential home prices, homebuilding and mortgage financing in the United States. Readers and viewers can visit the blog at www.housingviews.com, where feedback and commentary is welcomed and encouraged.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.

These indices are generated and published under agreements between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, Inc.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are produced by CoreLogic, Inc. In addition to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic.

SOURCE S&P Dow Jones Indices