S&P 500 Buybacks Return to $200 Billion Range in Q1 2020; Expectations for Q2 2020 are Low as Companies Suspend Programs
- Q1 2020 share repurchases were $198.7 billion - the fourth largest on record and a 9.4% gain over Q4 2019, and 3.4% lower than Q1 2019.
- Buybacks remained top heavy, even as they declined, with the top 20 companies accounting for 46.7% of the total, down from Q4 2019's 55.0%; the historical average is 44.6%
- Expectations for Q2 2020 buybacks have been limited by significant program suspensions as Q2 execution was limited to issues with positive cash-flow.

NEW YORK, June 25, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Dow Jones Indices ("S&P DJI") announced today that preliminary Q1 2020 S&P 500® stock buybacks, or share repurchases, were $198.7 billion – a 9.4% increase over Q4 2019's $181.6 billion, but down 3.4% from Q1 2019's $205.81 billion.

Historical data on S&P 500 buybacks are available at www.spdji.com/indices/equity/sp-500

Key Takeaways:

  • Companies posted the third consecutive quarter of increased buyback expenditures, returning to the $200 billion range, as the U.S. economic impact of the COVID-19 was just starting. For the quarter, S&P 500 companies spent $198.7 billion on buybacks, up 9.4% from their Q4 2019 $181.6 billion mark, but down 3.4% from last year's Q1 2019 expenditure of $205.8 billion.
  • For the 12-month March 2020 period, companies spent $721.6 billion, down 12.3% from the record 12-month March 2019's $823.2 billion. The cumulative rolling four quarters of repurchases continued to impact EPS as 19.3% of the issues reduced share counts by at least 4% year-over-year, down from Q4 2019's 20.7% and 24.9% in Q1 2019.
  • S&P 500 Q1 2020 dividends set a quarterly record, increasing to $127.0 billion, up 8.2% from Q1 2019's $117.3 billion; for the 12-month period, dividends set a record with $495.1 billion, up 6.6% from the corresponding prior period's $464.4 billion.
  • Total shareholder return of buybacks and dividends for the quarter came in at $325.7 billion, the second largest in history (Q4 2018 was $342.8 billion), up 5.8% from the Q4 2019 period expenditure of $307.9 billion and up 0.8%% from the $323.1 billion reported for Q1 2019.
  • Total shareholder return for the 12-month March 2020 period declined to $1.217 trillion from March 2019's record $1.288 trillion.
  • Buybacks continued to be top heavy, as the top 20 issues represented 46.7% of all buybacks, down from Q4 2019's 55.0%.

"Companies went out with a bang in Q1 2020 with respect to buybacks, returning to the $200 billion range for the quarter, reminiscent of the tax-inspired record-setting buying spree of 2018," said Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.  "While the expenditures for Q1 2020 were in line with the estimates at year-end 2019, expectations have significantly fallen since then due to the COVID-19 impact, as companies suspended their forward buybacks. But for Q1, they were all-in."

Remainer of 2020 Outlook:

"COVID-19 has significantly changed the Q2 2020 and forward buyback landscape, as companies have moved quickly to protect their liquidity via reduced and suspended buybacks and dividends," said Silverblatt, who noted that all corporations will be cautious about buybacks due to economic and political concerns. For the remainder of 2020:

  • Buyback priorities remain low among the new corporate short-term priorities:
    • Controlling liquidity
    • Reopening operations, with ongoing evaluations of:
      • Customer base
      • Business environment
      • Employee and social responsibilities
  • As businesses reopen and the economy picks ups, companies will need to address prior actions as well as initiate new procedures and policies to function in the new environment:
    • Reinstate buybacks related to covering employee options
      • Discretionary buybacks which reduce share count and increase EPS may be slower to return and subject to regulatory and political issues
    • Operational changes including:
      • Reorganization to address employee location needs
      • Operational changes to address any shift in customer base and cycles
    • Potential corporate changes with respect to M&A and divestiture

Q1 2020 GICS® Sector Analysis:

Information Technology continued to lead in buyback expenditures, spending $59.4 billion for the quarter, up 12.8% from the prior quarters $52.4 billion, but down 13.0% from the Q1 2019 $68.0 billion level.  On a percentage basis, the sector represented 29.8% of all buybacks, up from the prior quarters 28.9%. For the 12-month March 2020 period, the group spent $216.0 billion, representing 29.9% of the buybacks, down 23.7% from the corresponding 2019 period's $283.1 billion expenditure, which represented 34.4% of the buybacks.

Financials remained second to Information Technology, as they decreased expenditures 7.2% to $46.6 billion, down from last quarter's $50.2 billion, representing 23.5% of all buybacks, down from 27.7% in Q4 2019. For the one-year period, the group spent $182.5 billion, representing 25.3% of all buybacks, up 14.7% from their 2019 expenditure of $159.1 billion, which represented 19.3% of the buybacks. For Q2 2020, over three-quarters of the sector have suspended their buybacks.

Consumer Staples buybacks decreased 44.0% to $5.3 billion from last quarter's $9.4 billion, as the 12-month period decreased 18.5% to $29.3 billion from $36.0 billion in the 2019 period.

Issues:

The five issues with the highest total buybacks for Q1 2020 are:

  • Apple (AAPL) continued to lead, spending $18.8 billion in Q1 2020, ranking 7th in S&P 500 history, as the level was down 15.1% from their Q4 2019 $22.1 billion expenditure and down 21.2% from their Q1 2019 $23.8 billion. For the 12-month period, Apple has spent $76.6 billion on buybacks, up from 2018's $75.1 billion. Over the five-year period, they have spent $276.0 billion and $360.6 billion over the ten-year period.
  • Alphabet (GOOG): $8.5 billion for Q1 20120, up from $6.1 billion for Q4 2019; for the 12-months ending in March 2020 they spent $23.7 billion versus $9.9 billion.
  • Microsoft (MSFT): $7.1 billion for Q1 2020, up from $5.2 billion in Q4 2019; for the 12-months ending in March 2020 they spent $21.8 billion versus $17.3 billion.
  • JP Morgan (JPM): $6.5 billion for Q1 2020, down from their $6.8 billion Q4 2019 expenditure; for the 12-months ending in March 2020 they spent $25.4 billion versus $20.4 billion.
  • Bank of America (BAC): $6.4 billion for Q1 2020, down from the $7.7 billion spent in Q4 2019; for the 12-months ending in March 2020 they spent $28.2 billion versus $21.5 billion.

For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spdji.com.   

S&P Dow Jones Indices








S&P 500, $ U.S. BILLIONS


(preliminary and estimates in bold)




PERIOD

MARKET

OPERATING

AS REPORTED





DIVIDEND &


VALUE

EARNINGS

EARNINGS

DIVIDENDS

BUYBACKS

DIVIDEND 

BUYBACK 

BUYBACK 


$ BILLIONS

$ BILLIONS

$ BILLIONS

$ BILLIONS

$ BILLIONS

YIELD

YIELD

YIELD

12 Mo Mar,'20

$21,424

$1,149.84

$964.88

$495.13

$721.65

2.31%

3.37%

5.68%

12 Mo Mar,19

$23,619

$1,286.96

$1,129.97

$464.46

$823.17

1.97%

3.49%

5.45%

2019

$26,760

$1,304.59

$1,158.72

$485.48

$728.74

1.81%

2.72%

4.54%

2018

$21,027

$1,281.66

$1,119.43

$456.31

$806.41

2.17%

3.84%

6.01%

2017

$22,821

$1,066.00

$940.86

$419.77

$519.40

1.84%

2.28%

4.12%

2016

$19,268

$919.85

$818.55

$397.21

$536.38

2.06%

2.78%

4.85%










3/31/2020

$21,424

$161.64

$98.48

$126.98

$198.72

2.31%

3.37%

5.68%

12/31/2019

$26,760

$324.35

$294.78

$126.35

$181.58

1.81%

2.72%

4.54%

9/30/2019

$24,707

$330.42

$282.12

$123.12

$175.89

1.94%

3.12%

5.06%

6/28/2019

$24,423

$333.26

$290.00

$118.68

$165.46

1.93%

3.27%

5.20%

3/29/2019

$23,619

$316.56

$291.82

$117.33

$205.81

1.97%

3.49%

5.45%

12/31/2018

$21,027

$293.82

$242.91

$119.81

$222.98

2.17%

3.84%

6.01%

9/30/2018

$24,579

$349.04

$306.70

$115.72

$203.76

1.81%

2.93%

4.75%

6/30/2018

$23,036

$327.53

$288.55

$111.60

$190.62

1.89%

2.80%

4.69%

3/29/2018

$22,496

$311.26

$281.28

$109.18

$189.05

1.90%

2.56%

4.46%

12/29/2017

$22,821

$288.93

$230.12

$109.46

$136.97

1.84%

2.28%

4.12%

9/29/2017

$21,579

$268.35

$243.68

$105.45

$129.17

1.92%

2.40%

4.32%

6/30/2017

$20,762

$261.39

$231.40

$104.01

$120.11

1.96%

2.41%

4.37%

3/31/2017

$20,276

$247.32

$235.65

$100.86

$133.15

1.98%

2.51%

4.49%

12/31/2016

$19,268

$240.11

$207.93

$103.82

$135.29

2.06%

2.78%

4.85%

9/30/2016

$18,742

$247.98

$219.46

$98.43

$112.20

2.10%

2.92%

5.01%

6/30/2016

$18,193

$222.77

$201.79

$98.30

$127.50

2.14%

3.22%

5.36%

 

S&P Dow Jones Indices










S&P 500 SECTOR BUYBACKS










SECTOR $ MILLIONS

Q1,'20

Q4,'19

Q1,'19

12MoMar,'20

12MoMar,'19

5-YEARS

10-YEARS

Q4,'18

Q2,'09









(high)

( low)

Consumer Discretionary

$16,087

$16,620

$17,721

$66,843

$85,716

$417,144

$763,982

$25,652

$2,350

Consumer Staples

$5,278

$9,429

$9,786

$29,330

$35,978

$200,853

$434,920

$9,588

$4,013

Energy

$3,861

$5,025

$4,294

$18,318

$24,606

$81,249

$267,578

$8,698

$5,343

Financials

$46,637

$50,232

$42,845

$182,477

$159,097

$676,231

$947,931

$45,641

$1,170

Healthcare

$20,807

$20,041

$30,749

$73,922

$103,808

$415,356

$723,084

$31,336

$4,699

Industrials

$20,736

$10,218

$19,426

$62,102

$81,038

$349,482

$580,921

$23,026

$1,681

Information Technology

$59,138

$52,432

$67,986

$215,999

$283,088

$916,168

$1,453,129

$61,298

$4,757

Materials

$4,551

$3,117

$4,771

$15,488

$16,880

$60,027

$120,009

$5,857

$159

Real Estate

$1,320

$573

$409

$3,142

$3,293

$11,922

$11,922

$1,480


Communication Services

$20,002

$13,687

$6,345

$51,848

$26,412

$80,481

$116,587

$9,556

$13

Utilities

$303

$211

$1,479

$2,180

$3,251

$8,760

$18,153

$850

$10

TOTAL

$198,722

$181,583

$205,811

$721,649

$823,168

$3,217,673

$5,438,216

$222,980

$24,195











SECTOR BUYBACK MAKEUP %

Q1,'20

Q4,'19

Q1,'19

12MoMar,'20

12MoMar,'19

5-YEARS

10-YEARS

Q4,'18

Q2,'09

Consumer Discretionary

8.10%

9.15%

8.61%

9.26%

10.41%

12.96%

14.05%

11.50%

9.71%

Consumer Staples

2.66%

5.19%

4.75%

4.06%

4.37%

6.24%

8.00%

4.30%

16.59%

Energy

1.94%

2.77%

2.09%

2.54%

2.99%

2.53%

4.92%

3.90%

22.08%

Financials

23.47%

27.66%

20.82%

25.29%

19.33%

21.02%

17.43%

20.47%

4.84%

Healthcare

10.47%

11.04%

14.94%

10.24%

12.61%

12.91%

13.30%

14.05%

19.42%

Industrials

10.43%

5.63%

9.44%

8.61%

9.84%

10.86%

10.68%

10.33%

6.95%

Information Technology

29.76%

28.88%

33.03%

29.93%

34.39%

28.47%

26.72%

27.49%

19.66%

Materials

2.29%

1.72%

2.32%

2.15%

2.05%

1.87%

2.21%

2.63%

0.66%

Real Estate

0.66%

0.32%

0.20%

0.44%

0.40%

0.37%

0.22%

0.66%

0.00%

Telecommunication Services

10.07%

7.54%

3.08%

7.18%

3.21%

2.50%

2.14%

4.29%

0.05%

Utilities

0.15%

0.12%

0.72%

0.30%

0.39%

0.27%

0.33%

0.38%

0.04%

TOTAL

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

 

S&P Dow Jones Indices










S&P 500 20 LARGEST Q1 2020 BUYBACKS, $ MILLIONS 








Company  

Ticker

Sector

Q1 2020

Q4 2019

12-Months

12-Months

5-Year

10-Year

Indicated




Buybacks

Buybacks

Mar,'20

Mar,'19

Buybacks

Buybacks

Dividend




$ Million

$ Million

$ Million

$ Million

$ Million

$ Million

$ Million

Apple 

AAPL

Information Technology

$18,761

$22,085

$76,635

$75,149

$276,035

$360,633

$15,504

Alphabet 

GOOGL

Communication Services

$8,496

$6,098

$23,867

$9,927

$46,286

$47,107

$0

Microsoft

MSFT

Information Technology

$7,059

$5,206

$21,810

$17,272

$79,477

$122,740

$15,563

JPMorgan Chase 

JPM

Financials

$6,517

$6,751

$25,427

$20,403

$78,709

$103,673

$11,291

Bank of America 

BAC

Financials

$6,362

$7,748

$28,243

$21,499

$74,900

$79,795

$7,196

AT&T 

T

Communication Services

$5,463

$2,008

$7,691

$653

$9,733

$37,130

$15,194

Intel 

INTC

Information Technology

$4,229

$3,523

$15,322

$11,346

$37,846

$73,394

$5,742

eBay

EBAY

Consumer Discretionary

$4,037

$1,042

$7,727

$4,059

$18,687

$27,551

$554

Oracle 

ORCL

Information Technology

$4,004

$5,036

$20,860

$35,307

$79,439

$113,633

$4,775

Wells Fargo 

WFC

Financials

$3,713

$7,386

$23,464

$22,712

$74,528

$98,277

$9,481

Citigroup 

C

Financials

$3,331

$0

$11,773

$11,887

$56,229

$61,089

$4,454

Visa 

V

Information Technology

$3,141

$2,517

$9,942

$7,782

$36,935

$51,599

$2,054

Union Pacific 

UNP

Industrials

$2,956

$642

$5,273

$10,546

$26,776

$37,152

$2,693

Goldman Sachs Group 

GS

Financials

$2,732

$2,166

$6,832

$4,552

$32,310

$57,806

$1,967

Charter Communications

CHTR

Communication Services

$2,352

$2,305

$8,285

$4,722

$26,923

$27,723

$0

Biogen 

BIIB

Health Care

$2,220

$2,093

$7,433

$4,758

$19,807

$24,076

$0

Facebook,

FB

Communication Services

$1,940

$1,923

$7,354

$14,606

$29,794

$33,619

$0

Honeywell International 

HON

Industrials

$1,923

$750

$5,573

$3,810

$16,812

$20,069

$2,572

Linde plc 

LIN

Materials

$1,828

$724

$3,761

$727

$5,218

$8,962

$2,068

Morgan Stanley

MS

Financials

$1,782

$1,507

$6,091

$5,343

$23,461

$27,034

$2,823

Top 20   



$92,846

$81,510

$323,363

$287,060

$1,049,905

$1,413,063

$103,932

S&P 500



$198,722

$181,583

$721,649

$823,168

$3,217,673

$5,438,217

$514,910

Top 20 % of S&P 500



46.72%

44.89%

44.81%

34.87%

32.63%

25.98%

20.18%

   Gross values are not adjusted for float








 

S&P Dow Jones Indices





S&P 500 20 Largest Quarterly Buybacks, $ Millions, as of Q1 2020; Apple added at #7

$ MILLIONS

QUARTER

COMPANY

SECTOR



$23,811

Q1 2019

Apple

Information Technology

1


$22,908

Q1 2018

Apple

Information Technology

2


$22,085

Q4 2019

Apple

Information Technology

3


$21,860

Q2 2018

Apple

Information Technology

4


$21,162

Q2 2006

QUALCOMM

Information Technology

5


$19,364

Q3 2018

Apple

Information Technology

6


$18,761

Q1 2020

Apple

Information Technology

7


$18,154

Q2 2019

Apple

Information Technology

8


$18,036

Q1 2014

Apple

Information Technology

9


$17,635

Q3 2019

Apple

Information Technology

10


$17,319

Q3 2014

Apple

Information Technology

11


$16,413

Q2 2013

Apple

Information Technology

12


$15,707

Q3 2007

Interna'l Bus Machines 

Information Technology

13


$13,420

Q3 2015

Apple

Information Technology

14


$12,852

Q4 2013

Johnson & Johnson 

Healthcare

15


$12,318

Q4 2016

Allergan plc (AGN)

Healthcare

16


$12,183

Q2 2012

Johnson & Johnson 

Healthcare

17


$11,480

Q4 2016

Apple

Information Technology

18


$11,133

Q4 2017

Apple

Information Technology

19


$10,776

Q2 2016

Apple

Information Technology

20


 

S&P Dow Jones Indices





S&P 500 Q1 2020 Buyback Report









SECTOR

DIVIDEND

BUYBACK 

COMBINED



YIELD

YIELD

YIELD


Consumer Discretionary

0.89%

2.51%

3.40%


Consumer Staples

3.90%

1.66%

5.56%


Energy

5.60%

2.48%

8.07%


Financials

3.06%

6.79%

9.84%


HealthCare

1.91%

2.06%

3.97%


Industrials

2.14%

3.08%

5.22%


Information Technology

1.32%

3.26%

4.58%


Materials

2.56%

2.46%

5.02%


Real Estate

3.35%

0.44%

3.79%


Communications Services

1.42%

2.25%

3.67%


Utilities

3.53%

0.27%

3.80%


S&P 500

2.10%

2.92%

5.02%


   Uses full values (unadjusted for float)




   Dividends based on indicated; buybacks based on the last 12-months ending Q1,'20

 

Share Count Changes



(Y/Y diluted shares used for EPS)

>=4%

<=-4%

Q1 2020

8.05%

19.32%

Q4 2019

7.63%

20.68%

Q3 2019

8.62%

22.85%

Q2 2019

7.98%

24.15%

Q1 2019

8.03%

24.90%

Q4 2018

8.45%

18.71%

Q3 2018

6.43%

17.67%

Q2 2018

6.20%

15.60%

Q1 2018

7.01%

13.63%

Q4 2017

6.83%

15.06%

Q3 2017

8.62%

14.23%

Q2 2017

10.00%

14.00%

Q1 2017

12.00%

14.80%

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SOURCE S&P Dow Jones Indices

For further information: S&P DJI MEDIA CONTACT: Ray McConville, Communications Manager - Americas, (+1) 212 438 1678 raymond.mcconville@spglobal.com; INDEX INVESTMENT STRATEGY: Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst, (+1) 212 438 3916 howard.silverblatt@spglobal.com