S&P Capital IQ Introduces the Intelligent Estimate to Better Forecast Corporate Earnings Surprises
Innovative model complements investment professionals' earnings analysis
PR Newswire












NEW YORK, Jan. 9, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Capital IQ, a leading provider of multi-asset class data, research and analytics, today announced its quantitative research team has developed a unique approach to forecasting large surprises in company earnings. Investors can benefit from the increased accuracy of the Intelligent Estimate in conjunction with their existing investment process to streamline their investment decisions.

"Intelligent Estimates provide an edge for investment professionals, particularly during the busy, high workload earnings season," said Carson Boneck, Managing Director, S&P Capital IQ. "By comparing the Intelligent Estimate to the traditional consensus estimate, investment professionals will be provided with a quick snap shot of where earnings surprises are likely to occur so that they can position themselves accordingly."

The Intelligent Estimate is a forecast based on individual S&P Capital IQ earnings estimates for each stock, which are then weighted according to the following key attributes: the age of the estimate, the size of the issuing brokerage firm, proximity to the reporting date and period of time for which the analyst has covered the stock. This differs from other quantitative means of forecasting earnings that focus primarily on analyst performance. S&P Capital IQ's approach is proven to yield consistent results, predicting 62 percent of significant surprises.

"There is a natural tendency to look to those specialists that have historically demonstrated skill in their area as the basis for forecasting earnings surprises," said David Pope, Managing Director, S&P Capital IQ. "What we've done is introduce a more reliable model for determining forecast accuracy independent of historical skill based on very quantifiable and measurable factors."

The S&P Capital IQ Estimates database covers over 18,600 companies in more than 100 countries. History goes back to 1999 in the US and 1996 internationally. S&P Capital IQ currently collects data from over 700 contributors and stores over 45 unique data points. Current coverage includes the S&P 500, the MSCI World Index (99.9 percent), the MSCI Asia Apex Mid Cap 50, and the FTSE Indices.


About S&P Capital IQ

S&P Capital IQ, a brand of the McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE:MHP), is a leading provider of multi-asset class data, research and analytics to institutional investors, investment advisors and wealth managers around the world. We provide a broad suite of capabilities designed to help track performance, generate alpha, identify new trading and investment ideas, and perform risk analysis and mitigation strategies. Through leading desktop solutions such as Capital IQ, Global Credit Portal and MarketScope Advisor desktops; enterprise solutions such as S&P Securities Evaluations and Compustat; and research offerings including Leveraged Commentary & Data, Global Market Intelligence, and company and funds research, S&P Capital IQ sharpens financial intelligence into the wisdom today's investors need. For more information please visit www.capitaliq.com.