LONDON and SAO PAULO, June 30, 2016 /PRNewswire/ --

Platts Survey of Analysts (1H June)

    --  Cane crush: 26.7 million metric tons (mt)
    --  Total recoverable sugar (ATR): 124.34 kilograms per metric ton (kg/mt)
    --  Sugar production: 1.309 million metric tons (mt)
    --  Total ethanol production: 1.144 billion litres (ltrs)
    --  Hydrous ethanol production: 691 million ltrs
    --  Anhydrous ethanol production: 452 million ltrs
    --  Sugar mix: 41.49%
    --  Ethanol mix: 58.51%

Total sugarcane crushed in Brazil's Center-South region in the first half of June is expected to be 26.7 million mt, down 33% from same period last year, an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts showed Thursday.

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Industry association UNICA will release the official numbers on Friday, expected around 9:00 a.m. ET (10:00 a.m. Sao Paulo).

The wider range of analysts' expectations for cane crush spanned from 23.6 million mt to 31.1 million mt, while expectations for ATR spanned from 120 kg/mt of cane to 130.5 kg/mt.

The average of analysts surveyed pointed to 6.5 days lost to rains in 1H June.

Analysts at Platts Kingsman, an agricultural analytics unit of S&P Global Platts, forecast a cane crush of 25.7 million mt, ATR at 125 kg/mt of cane and the ratio of cane to produce sugar at 41.8%.

The analysts pointed out that rains hampered the crushing and ATR mainly in Mato Grosso do Sul state, Parana and Sao Paulo. Official data showed in Parana, the ATR in 1H June was 119.62 kg/mt, down from 137.8kg/mt in 2H May, while in Mato Grosso do Sul it was 115.16 kg/mt, down from roughly 127 kg/mt during the previous two weeks.

A decline in ATR level was already expected by producers because the sugar or ethanol produced in the first days of 1H May originated from cane crushed in the last two days of 1H May. This is usually balanced when cane is crushed for the whole two weeks, but at the end of 2H May, rains caused harvesting to stop. With the rain, the cane had many more impurities, so it is more suitable to produce ethanol than sugar, according to an analyst at Platts Kingsman.

Although a drop in the volume crushed is expected for 1H June by the analysts polled, the cumulative cane crushed so far this season would total 167.7 million mt, up 13% compared with same period last year. The 2016-17 sugarcane season began April 1 in Center-South.

According to the survey, the percentage of cane that went into sugar production is likely to be 41.49% in 1H June, down from 41.77% in 2H May and down from 42.17% during same period last year.

The poll showed that the ATR was likely 124.34 kg/mt of cane, down 5.85 kg/mt from the previous two weeks, but up just 0.2 kg/mt from 1H June 2015.

Sugar output is expected to come in at nearly 1.31 million mt in 1H June, down 34% year on year, the survey showed. Total ethanol output is expected at 1.14 billion liters, down 32% from 1H June 2015. Of this, hydrous accounted for 60% of the total at 691.2 million liters, down 33% year on year, while the balance was anhydrous.

Platts Kingsman forecasts call for the sales of the stand-alone biofuel hydrous to the domestic market are expected to come in at roughly 685 million liters, compared with 729 million liters in 2H May.

    CS Brazil Cane Production Data -  1H June, 2016 (as of June 16)

    Category                               Unit                         Survey                     Kingsman                 UNICA (2015-16)        Y-O-Y*     var. Vol

    Cane crush                             (million mt)                                    26.70                      25.70                  39.64        -33%          -12.98

    ATR                                    (kg/mt cane)                                   124.34                     125.00                 124.14        0.2%            0.20

    Sugar output                           (thousand mt)                                   1,309                      1,279                  1,977        -34%         -668.01

    Ethanol total                          (million ltr)                                   1,144                      1,118                  1,671        -32%         -527.75

    Hydrous output                         (million ltr)                                     691                        692                  1,034        -33%         -343.01

    Anhydrous output                       (million ltr)                                     452                        426                    637        -29%         -184.75

    Sugar Mix                              (%)                                            41.49                      41.80                  42.17

    Ethanol Mix                            (%)                                            58.51                      58.20                  57.83



    CS Brazil Cane Production Data - 2H May, 2016 (as of June 1)

    Category                               Unit                         Survey                     Kingsman                 UNICA

    Cane crush                             (million mt)                                    32.15                      33.90                  32.43

    ATR                                    (kg/mt cane)                                   126.61                     126.00                 130.19

    Sugar output                           (thousand mt)                                   1,668                      1,750                  1,680

    Ethanol total                          (million ltr)                                   1,344                      1,455                  1,444

    Hydrous output                         (million ltr)                                     831                        864                    871

    Anhydrous output                       (million ltr)                                     514                        591                    574

    Sugar Mix                              (%)                                            43.07                      43.00                  41.77

    Ethanol Mix                            (%)                                            56.94                      57.00                  58.23



    Sources: S&P Global Platts Pre-Report Survey of Analysts Results--UNICA Sugarcane Crush, Platts Kingsman, UNICA.



    *Year-on-year change compares Platts Survey against UNICA's figures for 2015-16

Visit the S&P Global Platts and Platts Kingsman websites for more information on sugar and biofuels.

Contact Platts Communications to arrange interviews with Platts Kingsman sugar and ethanol analysts: Claudiu Covrig, Maria Nunez, and Alessandra Rosete; and Platt's sugar price assessments specialists: David Elward, Nicolle Monteiro de Castro and Darren Stetzel. If you would like to receive this on a regular basis, please select Agriculture at this alerts sign-up link.

Editor's Note: In its bi-monthly cane harvest update, UNICA publishes a range of sugarcane harvest production metrics for Brazil's Center-South region, also broken down into São Paulo and other states.

Contact
Americas: Kathleen Tanzy, + 1 917 331 4607, kathleen.tanzy@spglobal.com

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SOURCE: S&P Global Platts