SAO PAULO, Oct. 26, 2016 /PRNewswire/ --

Platts Survey of Analysts (1H October)

    --  Cane crush: 33.86 million metric tons (mt)
    --  Total recoverable sugar (ATR): 147.10 kilograms per metric ton (kg/mt)
    --  Sugar production: 2.334 million metric tons (mt)
    --  Total ethanol production: 1.482 billion liters (ltrs)
    --  Hydrous ethanol production: 842 million ltrs
    --  Anhydrous ethanol production: 640 million ltrs
    --  Sugar mix: 49.14%
    --  Ethanol mix: 50.86%

Brazil's Center-South region is expected to have crushed 33.86 million mt of sugarcane in the first half of October, down 6.8% from same period last year and down from 42.26 million mt crushed two weeks prior, an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts showed Wednesday.

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Industry association UNICA is expected to release official production figures on Friday or Monday.

The 2016-17 sugarcane season began April 1 in the Center-South, the largest sugarcane producing region in the world.

The drop in the amount of cane crushed can be attributed to almost three days of stoppages due to rains and because there were fewer mills still operating in the period than in the same time last year.

In the year-ago period, it rained almost three days but not many mills had ceased operation at that point, while this year some mills have already entered into the intercrop period. According to UNICA, 13 mills had ceased operations as of October 1.

The range of analysts' expectations for cane crushed in 1H October was 32.2 million-36.9 million mt.

Analysts at Platts Kingsman, the agriculture analysis unit of S&P Global Platts, expect a cane crush of 36.9 million mt, with total recoverable sugar (ATR) at 144.1 kg/mt of cane. Platts Kingsman estimates that the percentage of cane allocated to ethanol was 51.8%, with the balance to sugar production.

According to the survey, analysts estimate that 50.86% of the total cane crushed was directed to ethanol output, with the balance to sugar. This compares with 56.67% allocated to ethanol during the same period a year ago.

Higher margins for sugar this season have lowered the percentage of cane directed to ethanol production, according to Platts Kingsman.

The survey pegged the ATR for 1H October at 147.10 kg/mt of cane, compared with 140.02 kg/mt last year and up 1.04 kg/mt from the prior two weeks.

Ethanol production is expected to have declined 12% year over year to 1.48 billion liters. Of this total, anhydrous accounted for 43%, or 640 million liters, down 4% on year. The balance was hydrous at 842 million liters, down 18% on a year-over-year basis.

Sugar production is expected to have increased 11% on the year to 2.33 million mt, 616,000 mt lower than in the prior two weeks.

If the estimates of the poll of analysts are confirmed, the amount of cane crushed since the season began through October 16 would be 507.4 million mt, up 6% from a year ago and sugar production would total 30.1 million mt, up 19%.

Ethanol production would be down 1.7% year versus this time 2015 to 21.35 billion liters.

Ethanol sales to the domestic market (fuel + industrial) are expected to have reached roughly 1.1 billion liters, with hydrous sales representing 60% of the total.

Hydrous fuel sales to the domestic market are expected to drop from now on, as hydrous is no longer competitive in the Southeast region, the main consumer region of the country, according to analysts at Platts Kingsman.

During October 16-22, hydrous prices at the pump averaged 72% of the gasoline price, compared with 70.8% the week before and 66.7% four weeks ago, data from the National Petroleum Agency (ANP) showed.

In theory, hydrous is competitive at the pump when its price represents 70% of the gasoline price, due to its energy content. Platts Kingsman expects that monthly hydrous sales to the domestic market in the Center-South region will average 1.1 billion liters from October through March 2017. From April through August, hydrous fuel demand in the Center-South totaled 5.97 billion liters, down 13% from same period in 2015, ANP data showed. September's figures have not yet been disclosed by the ANP.

Hydrous is mostly used as fuel in flex-fuel vehicles, while the country mandates blending anhydrous with gasoline in a proportion of 27%. Both products are also used in industry.

    CS Brazil Cane Production Data -  1H October, 2016 (as of Oct 16)

    Category                                       Unit                                                           Survey       Platts Kingsman  UNICA (2015-16)        Y-O-Y*    var. Vol. y-o-y*

    Cane crush                                     (million mt)                                                    33.86                  36.90                  36.32     -6.8%                    -2.45

    ATR                                            (kg/mt cane)                                                   147.10                 144.10                 140.02      5.1%                     7.08

    Sugar output                                   (thousand mt)                                                   2,334                  2,440                  2,099     11.2%                   235.18

    Ethanol total                                  (million ltr)                                                   1,482                  1,614                  1,693    -12.4%                  -210.73

    Hydrous output                                 (million ltr)                                                     842                    937                  1,023    -17.7%                  -180.56

    Anhydrous output                               (million ltr)                                                     640                    677                    667     -4.1%                   -27.16

    Sugar Mix                                      (%)                                                            49.14                  48.20                  43.33

    Ethanol Mix                                    (%)                                                            50.86                  51.80                  56.67


    CS Brazil Cane Production Data -- 2H September, 2016 (as of Oct 1)

    Category                                       Unit                                                           Survey UNICA

    Cane crush                                     (million mt)                                                    43.20                  42.26

    ATR                                            (kg/mt cane)                                                   144.61                 146.06

    Sugar output                                   (thousand mt)                                                   2,894                  2,950

    Ethanol total                                  (million ltr)                                                   1,880                  1,807

    Hydrous output                                 (million ltr)                                                   1,076                    998

    Anhydrous output                               (million ltr)                                                     804                    809

    Sugar Mix                                      (%)                                                            48.58                  50.16

    Ethanol Mix                                    (%)                                                            51.42                  49.84


    Sources: S&P Global Platts Pre-Report Survey of Analysts Results--Unica Sugarcane Crush, Platts Kingsman, UNICA.

    *Year-on-year change compares Platts Survey against UNICA's figures for 2015-16

Visit the S&P Global Platts and Platts Kingsman websites for more information on sugar and biofuels.

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SOURCE S&P Global Platts

SOURCE: S&P Global Platts